What a win in South Carolina means janvier 26 2008
Publié par Pierrick Leurent in : In English/ En Anglais , rétrolien
Voici le deuxième article en anglais. Une rapide analyse des enjeux de l’élection primaire d’aujourd’hui en Caroline du Sud. By David Schuld*. No matter how many times the Democratic candidates say their campaigns are ‘color blind’, the democratic primaries race in South Carolina is important for just that reason – race.
South Carolina has by far the largest African American population of any state which has conducted their primary so far (29 percent, or roughly 1.2 million people). Firmly loyal to the Democratic Party since John F. Kennedy, African Americans in South Carolina will be the first major indicator on where African Americans in general stand in terms of the 2008 campaign. South Carolina, however, is only a small piece of the pie of delegates that both main candidates, Clinton and Obama, are appealing for support from, and both candidates are already focusing their resources on bigger states…
Political pundits in the states have already called South Carolina for Obama, but as New Hampshire illustrated, the fortune-telling by poltical observers of this campaign season can be unreliable.
A win for Clinton would only add fire to Clinton’s campaign. It would also mean that Obama, who has only won one state, Iowa (not counting Nevada, where Obama won more delegates but Clinton won the population), would need to start reconsidering his campaign strategy, especially because the Obama campaign has put so much emphasis on winning South Carolina.
A win for Obama could re-ignite his campaign. While it would not be the killing blow for the Clinton campaign (Clinton is already focusing attention on several other key states like New York, New Jersey, California and Arkansas), it might cause her campaign to evaluate the loyalty of the African American vote (her husband, Bill Clinton, was sometimes heralded as “the first African American US President”).
A win for Edwards would be quite spectacular, as he has not won a single primary yet. He has been playing the long-shot candidate, but may receive a delegate boost as he a southern Democrat (having represented the state of North Carolina in the US Senate). If he doesn’t win or score high points, it might indicate the beginning of the end of his 2008 presidential aspirations.
No matter what, the campaign continues for all three candidates. South Carolina hasn’t even tallied their votes yet and all three candidates are already looking at February 5th – Super Duper Tuesday (52% of the delegates to the Democratic convention will be awarded that evening).
*David Schuld is an American student in European Politics in Leuven (Belgium). He graduated John Carroll University in Cleveland, Ohio last year.
Commentaires»
In your opinion, to whom would Edwards give his support in case of bad results in the upcoming primaries?
Thanks
Maud,
Good question, and I am not too sure honestly. From what I see in the debates, I could see Edwards supporting Obama, if bad results come out of South Carolina. But if there is bad news from South Carolina, I think Obama and Edwards will be in some serious trouble, even if they mass their votes together.
This campaign season has been crazy though, when most other elections would have been decided by now. I wouldn’t take anything for granted!
PS– A question roaming around in my head is if Edwards would campaigning for the Vice Presidential spot…. we’ll see!
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